In the longer term, AUKUS could catalyze the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies among its partners and into defense and security applications—but only if these countries act now to harmonize their approaches and consult experts. To realize the full potential of Pillar Two, the United States should reassure its AUKUS partners by taking radical steps to overcome barriers to cooperation, improve information sharing, and reform export controls. Above all, the success of AUKUS Pillar Two will depend on turning the strong political ties between the three nations into a new collective mindset to treat the agreement as an opportunity to find marginal—or even transformative—gains in the strategic competition with China.
Introduction
“AUKUS, as you all know, involves two pillars. Pillar I – providing Australia with a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability . . . and Pillar II – trilaterally developing and providing joint advanced military capabilities. . . . is a generational opportunity for deeper collaboration with two of our closest allies. . . . [But] make no mistake – the success of AUKUS is not predetermined – it must be built.”
– Jessica Lewis, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, Testimony to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, May 24, 2023
On September 15, 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced a landmark trilateral security agreement known as AUKUS. The centerpiece of AUKUS, known as “Pillar One,” is the delivery of a nuclear-powered attack submarine capability to Australia. This historic agreement—the first time the United States has shared its sensitive nuclear-propulsion technology with an ally since the 1958 Mutual Defense Agreement with the United Kingdom—was the focus of global media coverage following the announcement. Paris and Beijing both reacted acidly to the deal (albeit for different reasons). Progress on this pillar was seen in March 2023, when the leaders of the three AUKUS nations converged on Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego, California, to announce a pathway toward a trilaterally developed submarine, the SSN-AUKUS class. Less attention has been given to Pillar Two of the agreement, “the lesser-known – and poorly understood – part of AUKUS.”
If Pillar One was historic, then Pillar Two promises to be revolutionary. According to the bureaucratic language of the AUKUS announcement, the purpose of Pillar Two is to “enhance our joint capabilities and interoperability.” Yet the scope of the original agreement was massive, covering “cyber capabilities, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.” A few months later, four more areas were added to these “advanced capabilities:” hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, EW, innovation, and information sharing.
Individually, each area of Pillar Two has game-winning potential in the strategic competition with China. Taken together, they could be game-changing, securing the future military and economic advantage of the AUKUS nations and recasting the nature of this competition for global influence. As an article by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) puts it:
"There’s a growing realisation that emerging and critical technologies will be extraordinarily important for societies, economies and national security.
