The Kremlin, Lukashenko, and Prigozhin supposedly agreed that the latter and his Wagner troops would escape punishment for mutiny and be offered safe haven in Belarus in exchange for stopping their march on Moscow. The Belarusian authorities have assembled a camp capable of accommodating up to 5,000 soldiers at an abandoned military base, but there is no sign of Prigozhin or any of his units there, and Wagner’s prospects of finding a new home in Belarus grow more distant with every passing day. Nor is it clear what exactly the infamous mercenary army would do there.
Lukashenko, often described as Putin’s vassal, was an unexpected intermediary in what was arguably the most dangerous political crisis the Russian president has ever faced. Still, the real extent of Lukashenko’s involvement is far from clear. The official accounts from both Russia and Belarus can hardly be taken at face value, especially since even they differ.
Three days after the failed mutiny, Lukashenko claimed that he had personally talked Putin out of destroying the Wagner columns making their way to Moscow, and that he was also the first person to phone Prigozhin, convincing him to stop his advance by scaring him with the prospect of being crushed.
