Why India's rice ban could trigger a global food crisis
On 20 July, India banned exports of non-basmati white rice in an attempt to calm rising domestic prices at home. This was followed by reports and videos of panic buying and empty rice shelves at Indian grocery stores in the US and Canada, driving up prices in the process.
There are thousands of varieties of rice that are grown and consumed, but four main groups are traded globally. The slender long grain Indica rice comprises the bulk of the global trade, while the rest is made up of fragrant or aromatic rice like basmati; the short-grained Japonica, used for sushi and risottos; and glutinous or sticky rice, used for sweets.
India is the world's top rice exporter, accounting for some 40% of the global trade in the cereal. (Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan and the US are the other top exporters).
Among the major buyers of rice are China, the Philippines and Nigeria. There are "swing buyers" like Indonesia and Bangladesh who step up imports when they have domestic supply shortages. Consumption of rice is high and growing in Africa. In countries like Cuba and Panama it is the main source of energy.
Last year, India exported 22 million tonnes of rice to 140 countries. Of this, six million tonnes was the relatively cheaper Indica white rice. (The estimated global trade in rice was 56 million tonnes.)
Indica white rice dominates around 70% of the global trade, and India has now ceased its export. This comes on top of the country's ban last year of exports of broken rice and a 20% duty on non-basmati rice exports.
Not surprisingly, July's export ban has sparked worries about runaway global rice prices. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas reckons the ban would drive up prices and that global grain prices could rise up to 15% this year.
Also, India's export ban has not come at a particularly propitious time, Shirley Mustafa, a rice market analyst at the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) told me.
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