US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

The US needs India to buffer China, and Modi knows it

The killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada in June, allegedly by agents of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Indian government, has opened a rift between one of America's closest allies and one of its most vital geopolitical partners. It has also illustrated an unavoidable irony of President Joe Biden's foreign policy.

Biden aims to bolster a threatened global order by hastening India's rise. As India rises, however, it will act in ways that sometimes challenge the very order Washington must defend. And if Biden's team believes, as Asia policy czar Kurt Campbell has said, that the US and India have "the most important bilateral relationship on the planet," then Washington will probably tolerate a lot of bad behavior to keep that relationship intact.

The geopolitical case for US-India cooperation is unimpeachable. Way back in 1904, British polymath Sir Halford Mackinder explained why.

Thanks to the modernisation of both technology and tyranny, he wrote, there was a growing possibility that aggressive powers would dominate Eurasia and control its unmatched resources. So the era's liberal hegemon, Great Britain, must cultivate "bridge heads" on the edges of the supercontinent — Korea, France and India — so it could keep the world in balance by keeping Eurasia divided.

Today, large swaths of Eurasia are ruled by US enemies — a prickly, bellicose China; a vengeful, violent Russia; an expansionist Iran. India, an increasingly prosperous country of 1.4 billion people, may be the key to holding the balance — and particularly to denying China a free hand on land as it also expands at sea.

India is no less critical as a global manufacturing hub, a contributor to resilient technological supply chains, and a diplomatic leader of the developing world. This is why Biden has so prioritised strengthening US-India relations by hosting Modi for a state visit in Washington, helping make the recent G-20 meeting a showcase for Modi's leadership, and pursuing deeper cooperation across the board.

Yet Biden doesn't view India as a prospective military ally; he isn't counting on New Delhi to rush to America's assistance in a war with China over Taiwan. The idea is simply that America and India share a vital interest in keeping Beijing from dominating Asia and, perhaps, the world. So the US helps itself by helping India develop economically, mature militarily, and otherwise put its power athwart China's path to primacy.

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