Ukraine hopes to join the EU swiftly, but Brussels is only just beginning a conversation about its own pre-enlargement reforms
Ukraine hopes to join the EU swiftly, but Brussels is only just beginning a conversation about its own pre-enlargement reforms

EU enlargement: Is the bloc ready for new members?

Since February 2022, a new consensus has settled in Brussels: The European Union needs to grow larger. EU members once considered enlargement skeptics now agree that it's time to start thinking seriously about welcoming hopefuls like Ukraine, Moldova and Western Balkan states into the club.

 

The shift was prompted by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Before then, loose plans for expanding were Brussels' favorite proverbial can to kick down the road, passed from one administration to the next while aspirant members such as North Macedonia — an EU candidate since 2005 — jumped through a series of shapeshifting political and judicial hoops to qualify for access without ever exiting the waiting room.

These days, the mindset has changed. As one EU diplomat put it: "Enlargement is a reality now, and it wasn't a year and a half ago."

But Brussels has its own homework to do if the political consensus is to become a practical path. "Before you can have a realistic conversation with the countries coming in, we have to figure out what an enlarged EU would actually look like — and that's as far as we've gotten," the diplomat, who asked not to be named, told DW. "We know the questions but we don't really know the answers to them."

Tipping the balance of power: Making decisions at 30+

The conversation has, however, begun. Earlier this month, a group of researchers commissioned by France and Germany unveiled a paper full of ideas on the workings of and pathway toward a larger union. Thu Nguyen, a senior policy fellow at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, was among them. She told DW that rethinking how the EU takes decisions could prove most politically challenging.

The official list of EU candidate countries is long: Ukraine, Moldova,Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. Georgia and Kosovo are also considered "potential candidates."

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