The plan covers all the main aspects of climate action, based on the 2015 Paris agreement, now divided into what Al Jaber termed the four pillars, or four Fs: fast-tracking the transition to a low-CO2 world; fixing climate finance; focusing on people, lives and livelihoods; and full inclusivity.

The Cop president’s plan was broadly welcomed by experts and civil society on Thursday. Harjeet Singh of the Climate Action Network said: “[It] sends the right signals about the key elements required for a successful climate summit. [But] while the broad contours are positive, the devil will be in the details.”

Here is a breakdown of the details.

The 1.5C goal

The Paris agreement required countries to hold global temperature rises “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels, while “pursuing efforts” to stay within 1.5C. Since 2015, science has shown that 2C would entail calamitous impacts, so at Cop26 in 2021 governments agreed to focus on the more stringent goal of 1.5C.

Last year, some governments tried to unpick that commitment to 1.5C, so Al Jaber made clear from the outset that his plan was based on the tougher, and safer, goal. “This plan is guided by a single north star, and that is keeping 1.5C within reach,” he told ministers.

Kate Hampton, chief executive of the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, who worked unpaid on the plan, said: “The commitment to 1.5C is particularly important – the presidency has recognised it is time to accelerate the essential and inevitable end for fossil fuels. The challenge now for the presidency is to ensure delivery across a comprehensive agenda, which can only be achieved with a transformational plan for mobilising finance.”

National plans

At Cop28, governments will conduct for the first time a “global stocktake” that will set out the progress countries have made on the emissions reduction commitments – known as “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs – they made in Paris.

The stocktake is certain to find that the world is way off track to meet its Paris goals, but the Cop presidency has decided against naming and shaming individual countries. Instead, all countries will be required to submit updated NDCs in September, that are sufficiently tough to meet the 1.5 goal.

UAE has submitted a revision to its NDC, with emissions reductions of 40% compared with business as usual.

Phase out or phase down?

Al Jaber emphasised that this effort would entail “the phase down of fossil fuels”, which he said was “inevitable and essential”.

The wording is significant. Al Jaber was heavily criticised two months ago for repeatedly referring to the “phase out of fossil fuel emissions”, which observers took to mean that oil and gas companies could carry on extracting fossil fuels as long as the resulting carbon dioxide was somehow captured. But scientists have warned against using carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) as a “free lunch” to excuse continued extraction.

The phrasing “phase down” will also disappoint campaigners and the 80-plus countries who want Cop28 to pass a commitment to phasing out fossil fuels entirely.

Clean energy

Commitments to double energy efficiency, triple renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW globally, and double hydrogen production to 180m tonnes a year by 2030 will be put to governments at Cop28, and are expected to be agreed.

Romain Ioualalen, global policy lead at Oil Change International, said: “Recent history has shown that more renewable energy does not automatically translate into less fossil fuels. Cop28 will only be a success if its presidency sets aside the interests of the oil and gas industry and facilitates a clear outcome on the need for a decline of all fossil fuel production and use, as well as a rapid phase-in of wind and solar. The only way we’ll build a new energy system that is both clean and fair is by actively phasing out the old.”

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