Aformer head of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) used to describe the annual climate summit as “the only circus in town”. It may not be good enough to control climate change, he said, but the situation would be worse without it.
A few weeks ago, UNFCCC published a new analysis of national climate pledges to date, the NDC synthesis report, that underlines the huge gap between current action and what is required to keep global warming within 2C of pre-industrial levels. According to the UN’s climate science body, the IPCC, emissions must be cut by 43 per cent by 2030, based on 2019 levels, to keep warming within 1.5°C.
Against this backdrop, the agenda at the fortnight-long COP28 summit, set to start in Dubai on Thursday 30 November, will be led by the “global stocktake”, a process mandated under the 2015 Paris Agreement to evaluate action to combat climate change every eight years.
This will probably lead to a repeat of the “developed versus developing nations” blame game that has dogged climate negotiations for decades. Rich countries are trying to shift more responsibility for mitigating emissions onto developing countries, especially emerging economies, whilst doing too little themselves. Poor countries point out that rich ones created the problem in the first place, are not controlling their own emissions strictly enough, and are not providing the developing world with the money they have promised to control climate change and its effects.
COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber will need all of his diplomatic and negotiating skills to bridge this divide. He is also the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This role at a fossil fuel company presents a conflict of interest that weakens trust in his motivation to get a strong climate deal done. COP watchers suggest his strategy will be to announce how the oil and gas sector will be decarbonised.
It’s all about money
The global stocktake is supposed to reinforce efforts to control climate change. The developing world needs trillions of dollars for this task every year. Yet there is near-zero possibility of such sums coming from developed country governments, which have failed to meet a pledge made in 2009, to provide US$100 billion a year for climate action in developing countries by 2020. At COP28, bitter speeches from developing country government delegates on this lack of finance are perhaps inevitable.
What may be more constructive is the reported plan of Barbados prime minister Mia Mottley to use COP28 to push the Bridgetown Initiative, a plan to reform global climate finance. Mottley’s adviser Avinash Persaud told a pre-COP meeting held in New Delhi on 20 November that developing countries need US$2.4 trillion a year for emission mitigation, and of this, US$1.9 trillion can come from private investors if developed country governments pledge the rest to de-risk lending.
India’s economy will become carbon neutral by the year 2070, the country’s prime minster has announced at the COP26 climate crisis summit in Glasgow. The target date is two decades beyond what scientists say is needed to avert catastrophic climate impacts. India is the last of the world’s major carbon polluters to announce a net-zero target, with China saying it would reach that goal in 2060, and the United States and the European Union aiming for 2050.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
A crucial U.N. conference heard calls on its first day for the world's major economies to keep their promises of financial help to address the climate crisis, while big polluters India and Brazil made new commitments to cut emissions. World leaders, environmental experts and activists all pleaded for decisive action to halt the global warming which threatens the future of the planet at the start of the two-week COP26 summit in the Scottish city of Glasgow on Monday. The task facing negotiators was made even more daunting by the failure of the Group of 20 major industrial nations to agree ambitious new commitments at the weekend.