US-China relations: Expect more turbulence in 2024
After a year that brought panic over spy balloons, a fight over semiconductors and an intensifying military rivalry, China and the U.S. are ending the year with an uneasy detente.
This follows a November meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping where both men signaled a desire to stop the free fall in their countries' relations.
2024 could bring new turbulence. From presidential elections in Taiwan and the U.S. to continued U.S.-China trade fights, Biden and Xi face no shortage of problems that could cause a stumble in the new year.
CROSS-STRAIT TROUBLE
First up will be Taiwan's Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections. How China reacts could determine whether the relationship between the world’s largest economies becomes recharged with mutual suspicion.
Vice President Lai Ching-te and running mate Hsiao Bi-khim from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party are leading in the polls. China has labeled them as the "independence double-act" and rebuffed Lai's offers of talks.
Elections on the island, which China considers its own territory, have previously escalated tensions, most notably in 1996 when China's military exercises and missile tests ahead of the voting prompted the U.S. to send an aircraft carrier task force to the area.
This time Beijing has again ramped up military and political pressure, framing the elections as a choice between "peace and war," calling the ruling party dangerous separatists and urging Taiwanese to make the "right choice."
Some analysts believe Xi, hoping to avoid conflict, will moderate China's military response if Lai wins. But Taiwan is on high alert for Chinese activities, both military and political, ahead of the election.
TRUMP 2.0?
The 2024 U.S. presidential election could be even more consequential. Barring last-minute surprises, the election will likely be a rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump.
While the contest is sure to feature heated rhetoric about China, Xi will be more focused on one question: Will Trump return to office?
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