Photo by Tarek WAJEH / AFP
Photo by Tarek WAJEH / AFP

Growing Cities On The Frontlines of Climate Change

The U.N.’s annual climate conference that just wrapped up in Dubai had an unprecedented focus on food and agriculture. An impressive 134 world leaders signed on to the COP28 United Arab Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, which seeks to address “global emissions while protecting the lives and livelihoods of farmers who live on the frontlines of climate change.” Agriculture is a huge consumer of water and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. It affects and is affected by climate change. Even so, a focus on agriculture should not distract from the need to address cities, where most people live.

 

Today, some 56 percent of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and an estimated 70 percent will by 2050. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are nearly there already: 65 percent of the population is urban, a number that has almost doubled since 1960. As cities grow, governments must be sensitive to the climate impacts of their practices in cities and the countryside simultaneously.

The total population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region almost quadrupled from around 100 million in 1950 to about 380 million in 2000, growing faster than every other region. In addition to the pull of economic opportunity, two major trends pushed people into cities. The first was the effects of conflicts. Iraq still has over a million internally displaced persons (IDPs), and violence pushed millions more out of the country and into neighboring countries’ cities. In many cases, war has irrevocably changed their communities and pushed them to find security and economic opportunity elsewhere.  

The second was water scarcity and degradation of formerly arable land. Iraq’s recent history has many signs of both. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that between 2016 and 2022, 15 percent of the population in central and southern Iraq have been displaced due to climate change and environmental degradation. Environmental factors have displaced over 50 percent of the population in some subdistricts of Thi-qar and Maysan.

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