Can a Regional War Be Avoided in the Middle East?
The U.S. strikes on the Houthi rebels in Yemen show that the war that began after Hamas launched a brutal terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, is now a regional conflict. Regional actors, including Iran and the Houthis, want to demonstrate solidarity with Hamas and gain credibility with their constituencies for being part of the anti-Israel struggle. At the same time, however, Iran wants to avoid an all-out war with Israel and the United States. But the actions of both sides might accidentally spin out of control.
Deterring a regional war will be a challenge for the United States and require restraint on Israel’s part. Thomas Schelling, the U.S. foreign policy strategist and Nobel Prize-winning economist, argued that deterrence rests, in part, on the threat of inflicting more pain—what he called “latent violence.” This approach entails the United States using calibrated force against Iranian-backed groups in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, signaling that it is prepared to use more force if necessary, and then following up if it is required.
The threat of latent violence is particularly important to send to Iran. Over the past decade, Iran and its paramilitary arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-Quds Force, have strengthened their relationships with partner forces in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank, and other areas in the region. Since October 7, the head of the Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, has promised to support Hamas in an “axis of resistance” and visited Iranian-backed groups in Syria and Iraq.
Israel’s deadliest foe is Lebanese Hezbollah. The risk of an all-out war with Hezbollah has loomed since October 7. Since that date, Hezbollah and various Palestinian groups it controls have attacked Israel more than 200 times, while Israel has struck over 1,200 targets in Lebanon. Twelve Israelis have died, and Hezbollah reports it has lost around 150 fighters from the attacks and Israeli strikes have killed 20 Lebanese civilians. Israel has also struck Hezbollah commanders and senior Hamas figures in Lebanon. A member of the country’s war cabinet warned that if there is no diplomatic solution soon, Israel’s military will act decisively.
Israel and Hezbollah clashed in 2006 in a 34-day war that left both sides reeling, with at least 157 Israeli dead, perhaps 500–700 Hezbollah fighters killed, and as many as 2,000 Lebanese civilians dead. The hostilities ended with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the Lebanese state, not Hezbollah, to assert control of the border area.
India targets net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, says Modi
India’s economy will become carbon neutral by the year 2070, the country’s prime minster has announced at the COP26 climate crisis summit in Glasgow. The target date is two decades beyond what scientists say is needed to avert catastrophic climate impacts. India is the last of the world’s major carbon polluters to announce a net-zero target, with China saying it would reach that goal in 2060, and the United States and the European Union aiming for 2050.
COP26: What climate summit means for one woman in Bangladesh
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
Why China's climate policy matters to us all
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
Deliver on promises, developing world tells rich at climate talks
A crucial U.N. conference heard calls on its first day for the world's major economies to keep their promises of financial help to address the climate crisis, while big polluters India and Brazil made new commitments to cut emissions. World leaders, environmental experts and activists all pleaded for decisive action to halt the global warming which threatens the future of the planet at the start of the two-week COP26 summit in the Scottish city of Glasgow on Monday. The task facing negotiators was made even more daunting by the failure of the Group of 20 major industrial nations to agree ambitious new commitments at the weekend.