India pivots away from Russian arms, but will retain strong ties
India is seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier after Russia's ability to supply munitions and spares was hobbled by the war in Ukraine, but must step carefully to avoid pushing Moscow closer to China, Indian sources said.
The world's biggest arms importer is slowly turning West as the United States looks to strengthen ties in the Indo-Pacific region, hoping to contain an ascendant China by weaning the South Asian nation off a traditional dependence on Russia.
Russia supplied 65% of India's weapons purchases of more than $60 billion during the last two decades, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the Ukraine war hastened the impetus to diversify its weapons base.
"We are not likely to sign any major military deal with Russia," said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at New Delhi think tank the Observer Research Foundation. "That would be a red line for Washington."
That view comes despite Moscow's offers, described by four Indian government sources, among them a senior security official who recently retired, as including platforms such as the most advanced Kamov helicopters and Sukhoi and MiG fighter jets, with the added fillip of joint manufacturing in India.
All four sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject.
The foreign and defence ministries of India and Russia did not respond to requests for comment.
Russia has publicly urged India to step up defence ties, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned his focus to domestic production with Western technology, experts and officials said.
Such efforts would better fit Modi's "Make in India" programme to encourage domestic manufacturing, as he makes a rare bid for a third term in general elections due by May.
India expects to spend nearly $100 billion on defence orders over the next decade, its defence minister has said.
Last year, India and the United States signed a deal for General Electric (GE.N), opens new tab to produce engines in India to power its fighter jets, the first such U.S. concession to a non-ally.
They also plan to "fast-track" technology co-operation and co-production in areas ranging from air combat to intelligence, they said at the time.
Further driving India's ties with the United States is disquiet over China, as their troops are embroiled in a standoff on their Himalayan frontier since 2020, when one of their bloodiest clashes in five decades killed 24 soldiers.
The nuclear-armed neighbours fought a war in 1962, but their frontier, more than 2,000 miles (3,200 km) long, is still contested.
CLOSER TO BEIJING
India must walk a fine line in ties with Russia, as the largest buyer of its arms and, since 2022, one of the largest purchasers of its oil. Halting such trade would push Moscow closer to Beijing, the only other major economy it deals with.
"Arms purchase buys you influence," said the retired security official. "By shutting them out you make them subservient to China."
Trade with Russia in energy and other areas would help "keep it as far away as possible from China," added Unnikrishnan, the analyst.
Russia's arms exports have largely stabilised since the Ukraine war's early disruptions, which fuelled concerns about India's operational readiness, the officials said, but the fears have not entirely dissipated.
"As the Ukraine war stretches, it raises questions if Russia will be able to give us spare parts," said Swasti Rao, Eurasia expert at the state-run Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. "It is fuelling the diversification."
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