Iran-US: No war for now, but no peace, either
The US claims to have found the instigator of a drone attack on a US base in Jordan near the Iraqi border that claimed the lives of three soldiers at the end of January.
Speaking to the press ahead of the recent US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria on Iranian-backed militias, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington believed the drone attack was "planned, resourced and facilitated by an umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq" — a group of several Iraqi armed groups that are backed by Iran.
The military action took place amid extreme tensions in the Middle East as a result of the war between Israel and the Islamist militant organization Hamas. There are fears that it could lead to a direct confrontation between the US and Iran.
Iran denies accusations, issues threats
According to the Iranian state news agency IRNA, Iran has denied any involvement in the Jordan attack. "We are not looking for a war but are not afraid of it either," the agency quoted General Hossein Salami, the commander of Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, as saying last week. "We are not warmongers, but we defend ourselves and our glory."
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also urged the US to refrain from making threats and accusations and focus on a political solution. Iran's response to threats would be swift and decisive, he said.
Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said on Friday that ascribing every move made by a militia associated with Iran to decisions made by Iran's leadership was overly simplistic. Iran, he said, supported many armed groups abroad, including the Houthi militia in Yemen, the Kataib-Hezbollah in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
"Together, they form an 'axis of resistance' against Israel and the US," he said.
This support encompasses the provision of weapons as well as logistical and economic assistance, he said. "Based on this, one can indeed conclude that the collective decision to escalate against the US and Israel in response to the war in Gaza was taken by all these groups in coordination with and with the support of Iran," said Azizi, who conducted research on regional security at Iranian universities before moving to Germany in 2020.
However, Azizi noted that the individual groups had significant autonomy at the tactical and operational levels, especially when selecting the targets for attacks. "It is therefore difficult to assess the extent of Iran's involvement," Azizi said.
Ali Fathollah-Nejad, the founder of the Center for Middle East and Global Order in Berlin, also thinks it unlikely that Iran knew nothing about the attacks. After all, as he pointed out on the Swiss television channel SRF, the situation in the Middle East is extremely dangerous for the Islamic Republic.
It has taken care to avoid a direct conflict with the US or Israel, because any war resulting from this would endanger the security of the regime in Tehran. "The leaders in Tehran are well aware of this," Fathollah-Nejad said.
Struggling for influence in border regions
The drone attack on the American al-Tanf military base at the end of January took place in a region that was controlled by the jihadi terrorist organization "Islamic State" (IS) up until 2015.
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