On April 13, Iran launched a large salvo of missiles and drones at Israel. Designated “Operation True Promise,” the attack reportedly included around 170 drones, 120 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. It came in retaliation to an Israeli airstrike on April 1 against an Iranian diplomatic base in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the Quds Force’s General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. Iran’s attack marked the first time that Tehran has directly attacked Israel from Iranian territory.
On April 18, Israel responded in turn with airstrikes near Isfahan and Tabriz, Iran. Details on this attack are still coming in. Unconfirmed imagery suggests Israel struck at Iranian targets with some number of Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles. Iranian leaders have claimed that their air defenses fended off the attack, which is unlikely but signals that they will not respond.
Q1: What missiles and drones did Iran use?
A1: Identifying missiles used in combat is hard. Identifying Iranian missiles, which come in a bewildering, visually similar number of derivatives and modifications, is even harder.
Iranian state-run media has claimed the use of the Emad and Kheibar Shekan-1 ballistic missiles, Paveh cruise missiles, and Shahed drones. Other reports mention possible use of the Ghadr ballistic missile. The drones employed are widely reported as Shahed-131 and -136 variants.
Brigadier General Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, stated that Iran did not use its supposedly higher-end Khorramshahr, Sejjil, Kheibar Shekan-2, or Fatah ballistic missiles. The Washington Post has added that Iran did not appear to launch the Shahab-3.
Q2: Did Iran intend to limit Israeli casualties?
A2: Somewhat. U.S. and Iranian leaders reportedly engaged in back-channel conversations to discuss redlines and expectations over the past few weeks. Iranian leadership publicly warned about the forthcoming attack, and Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian claims to have given neighboring countries 72-hour notice before the attack. Once Operation True Promise commenced, incoming drones appeared on social media hours before reaching Israel.
To be sure, Iran’s decision to fire over 300 projectiles at Israel still suggests a high acceptance of risk for casualties, damage, and further escalation. Following reports of air defense success, one IRGC leader claimed that Iran used older and less sophisticated missiles in its attack. Perhaps this is why one U.S. official found that roughly 50 percent of Iran’s ballistic missiles failed on launch or in flight. However, it is difficult to validate Iran’s claim. It is doubtful that Iran held off using Khorramshahr missiles, for example, to avoid additional escalation risks.
Media reports have also exaggerated Iran’s intentions to limit casualties in the past. When Iran struck Al-Asad air base in Iraq in January 2020, for example, reports quickly established a misperception that Iran purposely avoided killing American service members. It took time before analysts noted that Iran did not “aim to miss” U.S. service members. Over 100 U.S. service members suffered traumatic brain injuries, with 80 troops awarded Purple Hearts. It is a miracle that Americans did not die.
Q3: How did Israeli air defenses perform against Iran’s attack?
A3: This episode represents an outstanding success story for air and missile defense. Despite the over 300 ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles launched, there appears to have been minimal damage to Israeli infrastructure and military assets, and the attack resulted in only one Israeli casualty.
It was also a joint effort. The coalition was led by the United States and featured the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan, in addition to Israel. Coordination took place at the Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which helped to prevent any friendly fire incidents. Although Saudi Arabia has denied direct involvement, the kingdom at least allowed U.S. aircraft stationed in the country to engage Iranian air threats. Israel’s Arab neighbors also may have contributed intelligence and sensor assets to detect and track Iranian air threats, although the extent of this cooperation remains unclear. U.S. policymakers have long advocated for an integrated missile defense in the region, and this joint operation helps illustrate why.
India’s economy will become carbon neutral by the year 2070, the country’s prime minster has announced at the COP26 climate crisis summit in Glasgow. The target date is two decades beyond what scientists say is needed to avert catastrophic climate impacts. India is the last of the world’s major carbon polluters to announce a net-zero target, with China saying it would reach that goal in 2060, and the United States and the European Union aiming for 2050.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
China's carbon emissions are vast and growing, dwarfing those of other countries. Experts agree that without big reductions in China's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change. In 2020, China's President Xi Jinping said his country would aim for its emissions to reach their highest point before 2030 and for carbon neutrality before 2060. His statement has now been confirmed as China's official position ahead of the COP26 global climate summit in Glasgow. But China has not said exactly how these goals will be achieved.
A crucial U.N. conference heard calls on its first day for the world's major economies to keep their promises of financial help to address the climate crisis, while big polluters India and Brazil made new commitments to cut emissions. World leaders, environmental experts and activists all pleaded for decisive action to halt the global warming which threatens the future of the planet at the start of the two-week COP26 summit in the Scottish city of Glasgow on Monday. The task facing negotiators was made even more daunting by the failure of the Group of 20 major industrial nations to agree ambitious new commitments at the weekend.