China plans for more intense competition, whoever wins the US election

While the rest of the world weighs the impact of a Donald Trump or a Kamala Harris victory in November’s US presidential election, both candidates present serious challenges for China. 

To be sure, neither seems to want open conflict between the two powers, which could precipitate a nightmarish descent into global chaos. But Chinese decision-makers expect bitter disputes over trade, technology, and Taiwan regardless of who wins.

China is preparing for more turbulence by taking a whole-country approach to its relations with the US. That means moving beyond the realm of foreign affairs and coordinating with economic policymakers, military personnel, and technology leaders, as well as mobilizing resources across the country. Such an approach is informed by the US strategy of containment, which in recent years has included relentless efforts to maintain America’s technological supremacy, curb China’s access to the global market, and build a coalition of allies, both in Asia and elsewhere, to tackle the ‘China challenge.’

Chinese decision-makers expect bitter disputes over trade, technology, and Taiwan regardless of who wins.

 

Feeling under siege, China is girding itself for long-term enmity with the world’s largest economy. Judging from the recent meeting readout between the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, Beijing seems to have abandoned hopes for more collaborative ties with the US. Instead, the emphasis is  now on defining the terms and conditions of competition between the two titans.

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