Europe just became the world’s most dangerous place

Not long ago, Europe was seen by the world as a model for peace and cooperation. The Cold War had ended with the peaceful implosion of the Soviet Union. The EU and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were seen as a beacon for the rest of the world, including Asia and the Middle East, to emulate. Today, these claims are shattered. While the Ukraine situation continues to evolve, there are some immediate consequences. The Ukrainian crisis is another nail in the coffin of the post-war liberal order. The order was already fraying due to a global economic shift from the West to China. That shift was in motion even before US President Trump assumed office with a foreign policy agenda that distrusted both economic globalisation and multilateral institutions. Upon taking office, US President Biden pledged to ‘repair our alliances and engage with the world once again’. The Ukraine crisis is set to impede multilateralism, paralyse the UN Security Council and limit cooperation among the major powers. It is likely to return the world to opposing power blocs where the United States and its NATO allies face Russia and China. In confronting Russian President Putin, Biden has turned to NATO. There have been celebrations about renewed NATO unity induced by Putin’s provocations. But NATO has been part of both the problem and the solution. Writing in the New York Times in 1997, George F Kennan — the father of the US ‘containment’ strategy against the Soviet Union — warned that ‘expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era’. Kennan’s warning has proven correct.

 

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