Europe’s uncertain Indo-Pacific strategy

With Russia’s war on Ukraine now in its third month, the outcome remains uncertain as the death toll and destruction mount.

As recently as a few months ago, Asia appeared to be an increasing focus for Europe. There was hope in Washington that European countries could play a larger role in Asia as the Biden administration sought partners to counter China’s economic and diplomatic might.

European engagement in the Indo-Pacific was always questionable, in any case. Few European countries have strategic interests in Asia. Most have an economic interest there, given China’s market size and status as one of their top trading partners. But few have been willing to press Beijing on sensitive issues openly. This posture, however, has been slowly changing.

And so, when it seemed Europe may be taking a slightly greater interest in Asia, we now have war in Europe. Given Russia’s belligerence, it may be harder for European officials to justify putting resources toward Asia. Already, several NATO and European countries announced increased defense spending. As a result, there may be less European interest in Asian matters. At the same time, if more NATO and European members ramp up their defense capabilities, it may help Washington shift more of its resources to the Indo-Pacific instead – assuming Washington doesn’t get too caught up in Europe as well.

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