Is AUKUS the New ASEAN in the Indo-Pacific?

The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, recently said that the Indo-Pacific region will “shape this century”. It is no secret that the Indo-Pacific, in the last five years, has become the fastest-growing region, accounting for two-thirds of global economic growth, and is also an arena of security competition due to China’s growing belligerence. This new opportunity and threat are sounding alarm bells in ASEAN, a  cord that connects the Pacific coastline to the Indian Ocean. ASEAN, a grouping of 10 Southeast Asian nations aiming to integrate political, economic, and security issues in Asia-Pacific through consultation (musyawarah) and consensus (mufakat), has emerged as a regional stabilising force. After the end of the Cold War, ASEAN took upon itself the task of maintaining peace and stability in the region by acting as a central force in ensuring security in the region. ASEAN today faces headwinds as the regional balance of power is undergoing a shift with the aggressive rise of China and the US’ relentless attempt to maintain the status quo with the formation of new regional groupings with its like-minded allies (QUAD, AUKUS, etc). The turbulence in ASEAN is symptomatic of the US–China rivalry and ASEAN’s internal weaknesses. In September 2021, when the trilateral security (military and technology) pact, i.e., AUKUS was announced, it evoked divided reactions from ASEAN member states. On one hand, Indonesia and Malaysia expressed deep concerns regarding the continuing arms race and power projections in the region; on the other hand, Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. welcomed AUKUS, though cautiously. Once at the height of a golden age, ASEAN believed it was in the driver’s seat of the region’s fortune. However, the emergence of AUKUS has exposed the fissures in the idea of ASEAN centrality in the Indo-Pacific.

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