What hope is there for diplomacy in ending the Russia-Ukraine war?

An increasingly bitter diplomatic row over Germany’s unwillingness to supply heavy weaponry to Ukraine threatened to spill into a wider dispute between allies over whether they are prepared to accept a peace settlement that leaves Vladimir Putin capable of claiming victory. One western official said western leaders are divided between those who think they can work with Vladimir Putin’s Russia once the war is over, and those who think they cannot. The row is leading to disputes over the arming of Ukraine, the feasibility of enforcing a Russian oil import embargo and whether Kyiv will have to accept a further loss of territory at the end of the war as the price for peace. The immediate point of conflict between Ukraine and some of its allies focusses on the supply of weaponry to Ukraine, and the heavy weather Germany seems to be making in setting up an elaborate chain that would see the country supplying armaments to its Eastern neighbours – principally Poland and the Czech Republic – that would in turn send armoury on to Ukraine. Kyiv is suffering serious losses due to the absence of long-range weaponry. The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said the delivery of weapons could not be delayed: “We are in great need of weapons that will make it possible to hit the enemy from a long distance.” Citing its sources in Nato, the national news agency, Deutsche Presse Agentur, reported that alliance members have informally agreed not to supply certain weaponry to Ukraine, fearing Russia could see the delivery of tanks and combat aircraft as the west entering the war and take retaliatory measures. Quite what this decision means in practical terms is disputed.

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