Poker, not chess, is the name of the game in the Indo-Pacific

The heightening tension between the United States and China is pulling Indo-Pacific nations into one or the other camp, but it’s too soon to give in to the idea that it has become a bipolar region. Some countries, Indonesia for one, still believe that the region has not been completely divided into two camps and that active multilateralism could stop the ongoing polarization and prevent the cold war from turning into a hot war. Beijing appears to be already thinking of the region as a theater for the hegemonic contest with Washington. At least that’s what Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi implied in his speech in Jakarta at the ASEAN secretariat last week, when he said, “We should insulate this region from geopolitical calculations […] from being used as chess pieces from major power rivalry and from coercion.” The analogy to chess implies that nations should stay out of the rivalry, rather than joining the game as chess pieces, whether as pawns, bishops, knights or rooks. And chess being a strategic board game, the speech is revealing of how Beijing sees its rivalry with the US. One could assume that Washington is only happy to play a game in which there really are only two players. Playing chess means simplifying and reducing the expansive, diverse and complex Indo-Pacific region into either black or white pieces. You are either with one or the other side, or you just stay out and watch.

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