Russia-Ukraine war to continue to drive inflation, global slowdown – IMF

The war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in a substantial deterioration of the global economic environment, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with headwinds from the conflict resulting in weaker GDP growth expectations for 2022 and into next year. World real GDP has seen its first contraction since 2020 in the second quarter of this year, the IMF said in its latest world economic outlook report. This contraction has been put down to a number of factors, one of which being COVID-19 lockdowns in China. However, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had particularly severe impacts on the current global economy. “World real GDP is estimated to have shrunk in the second quarter—the first contraction since 2020—owing to economic downturns in China and Russia,” the IMF said in the report. The fund slashed its global GDP growth expectations for 2022-23 compared to forecasts last quarter, by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. Global GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023, according to IMF estimates. “The impact of the sanctions that have accompanied the war is going to lead to a further deterioration of economic output in 2023,” said chief economist Pierre Olivier peaking at a press conference in Washington DC on Tuesday. “The risks of the outlook are overwhelmingly tilted to the downside,” Olivier added.

 

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